MOSCOW, 30 October (Georgy Mirsky for RIA Novosti). "The situation is such that in reality no one wanted war and the introduction of Turkish troops into northern Iraq.
Except probably that part of the Turkish Kurds who have formed the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Their combat troops to fight for many years on the territory of Turkey. issued from time to time they are on the territory of Iraq, to Iraqi Kurdistan in order to recover, to re-arm and then again to return to Turkey. "
This opinion said Professor Georgy Mirsky, famous Russian orientalist and political scientist, executive staff member of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations at the Russian Academy of Sciences, Dr. habil. the historical sciences. If so requested by RIA Novosti, the messages in the mass media about the introduction of units of the Turkish army into northern Iraq to the territory of Iraqi Kurdistan, commented.
Mirski is certain that such a situation (fighting and introduction of troops into Iraqi territory) all bring you to a very difficult position.
He said that the Turkish generals are complaining that the Turkish army for many years in the fight against the PKK guerrillas and their guerrilla war can not achieve success. The soldiers claim that they were unable to destroy another country lying bases of Kurdish separatists. They are given no such possibility. Therefore, they fight with their hands tied, and every time a serious operation begins, the guerrillas cross the border and get into the mountains, to their bases. Be that as the Turkish military said repeatedly to end. It is necessary to enable the separatists and their bases across the Turkish border, a crushing blow, even if this should be a serious military operation may be necessary. Today
find these calls by the Turkish military's support in the population. This particularly helped by the fact that a committee adopted the House of Representatives of the U.S. Congress a resolution which condemns the genocide of the Armenians. The U.S. resolution increased in Turkey seriously the anti-American sentiments, which were already quite strong. According to surveys, only 11 percent of Turks are positive about the United States. This decision of the Congress has poured more oil into the "anti-American" fire, even if no one actually committed to something. It has not even clear that the House will accept it. Most likely not. But even if the board did, that would be for U.S. policy is irrelevant. President Bush and his administration made it categorically, not the decision to adopt. The Turks understand that, but, against all logic, the anti-American sentiments increased. Then there are the new attacks by the Kurdish troops. Among other things, an ambush a little more than a Week, came into the Turkish troops. Twelve soldiers were killed and eight taken prisoner. All this has exhausted the patience of the population. A wave of massive demonstrations rolled across the country. The Turkish government can not ignore it. In each country, the government is obliged to take into account the opinion of the people. Thus, the conditions for large-scale operation against the PKK separatists have matured.
But how then? It will not be able to occupy all of Iraqi Kurdistan and to occupy for a long time to subdue, and bring peace. There will break a partisan war. Long as the Turkish troops will not be able to keep there. Of course they will all troops of the PKK rebels, who have come from Turkey into northern Iraq, easily and quickly destroyed, just as the Iraqi Kurdish armed forces, they should try to support the Turkish Kurdish separatists. Exactly five years ago I was in that room, in the now war can break out: on the border between Iraqi and Turkish Kurdistan. Certainly, the Turkish forces to crush them, but what comes next, nobody knows. They are all Iraqi Kurds, which they maintained normal relations until now muster against him. All this is quite hopeless. Only that the Turkish public satisfaction be.
is much worse for Turkey, that in Europe, in which they are on the European Union would like to integrate as much as aggression will be considered against the sovereign state of Iraq, although Iraq and Kurdistan are in fact completely independent structures. De facto, they are completely independent. Formally, but Kurdistan is part of the Republic of Iraq. And of course you will condemn European aggression against a sovereign state, in addition a UN member, sharply, so that the path of Turkey to Europe will be even thornier.
And what about the perspective of the relations of Turkey with the United States? Finally, the USA its main ally. If a large-scale Turkish military operation in its entirety comes, America will fall into a very complicated situation. It may be the Iraqi Kurds not to let down, its only the faithful and reliable allies in the tortured, suffering Iraq.
is well known that waited in front of the war, the Kurds on the entry of the Americans as a gift from heaven, but they knew that they would destroy the regime of Saddam Hussein. And now could allow the Kurds without the help and close their eyes to how the Turkish army deal with them is, says the Russian Orientalist, the only reliable losing allies in Iraq. What could be worse? But on the other hand, Turkey is a no less important for the U.S. ally.
The Americans could do something to protect in the event of a military operation, the Iraqi Kurds. We are talking about the Iraqi Kurds, says Mirsky, and not by the armed Turkish troops from the Kurdish PKK. If, however, would take up the Iraqi Kurdish forces fighting, which would in the opinion of Russian experts in the United States complicate the situation seriously. Currently there is no room in this American armed forces. It's hard to imagine what happens when American troops advance to the rescue of the Iraqi Kurds to Iraqi Kurdistan and to a clash with the Turkish army, so the collision of two NATO members will come. How
Mirski said, could see the U.S. facing a very difficult choice. Although the Turkish government sees excellent, he added that it was the U.S. Turkey would never forgive them if it includes in a situation in which "the one bad and the other is not better" and it "does not work, the Kurds to abandon, but protecting it is also impossible.
course is an invasion of Turkey in Iraqi Kurdistan as an aggression against the sovereign Iraq qualified. Of course, the Iraqi army will take steps to defend the sovereign territory of the country. But how effective will that be? For the time being it is unable to cope with in the other rooms, the duties imposed on the fight against terrorism and banditry.
conclusions from the above, Mirski draws the conclusion: It is obvious whom solely a Turkish operation could bring benefits: the combat troops of the PKK. Why? For one simple reason: even if their bases are destroyed by the Turkish army and occupied is important to Turkey bordering part of Iraqi Kurdistan, would be for them the struggle is not over. They will move into the mountains and regroup. You are in losses and a protracted war ready to fight in the end the separation of the Kurdish areas of Turkey and the formation of an independent state. They are fanatics, extremists who are ready for anything. It is in their interest, set when the Turkish army moves in and Kurdistan. In this case, were victims of Turkish aggression and could count on a powerful and long-time support from their brethren, the Iraqi Kurds. Finally, it is a people.
The opinion of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
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